🔗 Share this article A Prediction Market Trader Profited $436,000 on Bets on Maduro's Downfall. In this photo illustration, a Polymarket logo is seen displayed on a smartphone. An individual profited close to $500,000 from wagers on the downfall of Venezuela's president immediately preceding it was officially announced, sparking debate about potential gains made from inside knowledge of the event. Sudden Shift in Predictions Predictions made on the forecasting site, a crypto-powered platform, that the Venezuelan president would be no longer in control by the end of January increased in the period preceding former President Trump declared on the weekend that Maduro had been taken into custody. One account, which became a member recently and placed four wagers, all on the Venezuelan situation, profited a total of $436,000 from a modest bet of over $32,000. Who placed the bet is a mystery. The anonymous account had only a string of letters and numbers for identification. Probability Spikes Before News Break Trading information shows that traders assessed the probability of the president's removal at just 6.5% in the late afternoon of the prior Friday. Yet the odds had increased to eleven percent by late Friday night and skyrocketed in the early hours of January 3rd, suggesting a sharp shift in positions right before the public announcement was made. "This specific wager has all the characteristics of a transaction based on non-public details," said an industry expert. A small number of other traders also made tens of thousands of dollars from bets on the same outcome. Political Attention Grows Elected officials are starting to take note. Proposed legislation presented on Monday seeks to ban public officials from placing bets on prediction markets if they have "insider details" related to a wager. Industry Context Forecasting platforms have surged in popularity in recent years, with traders able to predict everything from sports to political events. Prediction markets encountered regulatory challenges under the previous administration. However it has received a warmer welcome during the Trump presidency. Insider trading is a crime in the stock market, but there are fewer regulations in the prediction market arena. An official representative for a competing service said their site "strictly forbids such activities of any form."